Koung Turns Up the Heat: Tribal Politics Take Center Stage in Nimba’s High-Stakes By-Election

Nimba County’s 2025 senatorial by-election is more than a contest for legislative representation—it is a referendum on the county’s enduring ethnic politics, the ambitions of its power brokers, and the future of postwar political culture in Liberia.

With 307,254 registered voters across nine districts and an expected turnout of about 37.57% (roughly 115,435 voters), the April 22 contest is widely seen as a battleground for tribal and regional allegiances. This dynamic, however, is neither new nor accidental. Nimba, as a traditional county, has a long history of voting along ethnic lines, with tribal identity often outweighing candidates’ academic credentials or policy platforms1.

The Shifting Rhetoric of “Tribal Balance”

Vice President Jeremiah Koung’s recent campaign for “tribal balance” has become the defining narrative of this by-election. Koung, himself a Gio (Dan), now argues that the Senate seat should alternate between the Gio and Mano tribes to ensure representation for both. Yet, this argument is a marked departure from his own political past and the county’s electoral history. Nimba has held seven postwar senatorial elections, with Mano candidates winning only two. For much of the postwar period, the Senate seats were occupied by Gio politicians—most notably Koung himself and the late Senator Prince Johnson, both Gio, and Thomas Grupee, also Gio. During these years, the notion of “tribal balance” was never raised as a political necessity. The silence on this issue persisted even when both Senate seats were held by members of the Gio community1.

Now, with the Mano having gained an edge—most recently exemplified by Nya D. Twayen Jr.’s victory in the 2024 by-election, a result seen as an upset over the Gio-backed Samuel Kogar—Koung has shifted his rhetoric, calling for tribal parity as a matter of fairness and stability. Critics and observers note the timing: Koung’s call for balance only emerged when the traditional dominance of the Gio was challenged, revealing the argument as a tactical response to changing political fortunes rather than a principled stance1.

The current election is also shaped by the absence of the late Senator Prince Johnson, who for decades wielded unrivaled influence in Nimba as a political “Godfather.” Koung, who rose to power in Johnson’s shadow, now sees this by-election as a defining moment—a chance to step into Johnson’s role as kingmaker and consolidate his own authority over the county’s politics. By ensuring that his endorsed candidate wins, Koung aims to demonstrate that he, not anyone else, now holds the keys to Nimba’s political future. Koung’s personal stakes are high. Nimba is the foundation of his national political career and the main reason he holds the vice presidency today. Should his candidate lose, it would not only undermine his claim to Johnson’s legacy but also weaken his standing ahead of a potential 2029 presidential or vice-presidential bid. In this sense, the by-election is as much about Koung’s personal ambitions as it is about the county’s representations.

Tribal Loyalties, District Realities, and the Battle for Political Influence

Dist #1: Edith 1st - Kogar 2nd - Yealue 3rd

District 1, encompassing Bain & Garr chiefdoms, is predominantly a Mano district but includes Gio and Mandingo populations due to Ganta’s status as Nimba’s commercial city—the county’s most populous urban center. This diversity somewhat dilutes strict tribal voting patterns, allowing Edith, a Mano candidate, to lead, with Kogar (Gio) and Yealue trailing. The commercial nature of Ganta attracts various ethnic groups, which may encourage a more mixed voting behavior, though tribal loyalties remain influential. With 33,646 registered voters, about 12,640 voters are expected to turn out here.

Dist #2: Edith 1st - Kogar 2nd - Mack 3rd

District 2 is a pure Mano district, including Sanniquellie City and towns such as Sopea, Duo Boe and Duo Gorton where Edith is expected to secure about 80% of the votes, reflecting strong tribal loyalty among the Mano people. The Mano ethnic group, being the dominant population here, tends to vote cohesively for candidates from their tribe, reinforcing tribal voting patterns. With 32,533 registered voters, an estimated 12,222 voters are projected to participate.

Dist #3: Yealue 1st - Kogar 2nd - Edith 3rd

District 3 includes clans such as Gbeh, Zor, Sangozao, and Yarmein. Yarmein is a small Mano portion of district 3. Yealue whose grandfather Wotoe Mongrue was the first Representative of Gbehlay Geh statutory district, has strong ties to the Gio community and is likely to edge out Kogar here. The slight Mano presence may split votes, but Gio dominance and Yealue’s political profile gives him an advantage. This district includes towns such as Karnplay, Larpea and Zor Gowee. With 34,518 registered voters, about 12,968 voters are expected to vote.

Dist #4: Yealue 1st - Kogar 2nd - Mack 3rd

District 4, comprising Gbor and Twah River administrative districts, is a pure Gio district with towns like Vayenglay, Bayleglay and Gbor Payee. Yealue, having served as its first lawmaker, is favored to lead, but the margin between him and Kogar is expected to be slim due to Kogar’s incumbency and strong backing from VP Koung. With 35,369 registered voters, approximately 13,288 voters are projected to turn out.

Dist #5: Kogar 1st - Yealue 2nd - Mack 3rd

District 5, Kogar’s home district (Buu-Yao), includes clans such as Buu & Yao, Wea and Niquea. District 5 has major towns such as Buutuo, Wea Beeplay and Glalay. Kogar's incumbency and strong tribal ties give him a clear lead. This Gio stronghold is crucial for Kogar’s senatorial ambitions. With 26,230 registered voters, about 9,854 voters are expected to participate.

Dist #6: Mack 1st - Kogar 2nd - Yealue 3rd

District 6, covering Boe & Quilla, Kparblee, and importantly Tappita District—home to Tappita City and the Jackson F. Doe Memorial Regional Referral Hospital—is a mixed Gio and Krahn area. Mack, who hails from this district, is expected to lead, demonstrating that tribal identity can be nuanced, with Krahn voters supporting their district's candidate (Mack). With 27,848 registered voters, about 10,462 voters are projected to turn out.

Dist #7: Kogar 1st - Edith 2nd - Yealue 3rd

District 7, consisting of Zoe-Gbao and Wee chiefdoms, is approximately 60% Gio and 40% Mano. District 7 has two major cities such as Saclepea and Bahn. Kogar’s lead here reflects his strong Gio support, but Edith’s significant Mano support places her second. Registered voters number 31,692, with a projected turnout of 11,906 voters.

Dist #8: Edith 1st - Kogar 2nd - Mack 3rd

District 8, made up of Lao-Zao and Leewehpea chiefdoms is a pure Mano district with towns like Flumpa and Geepo. Edith leads due to the overwhelming and unmixed Mano population, but Kogar’s maternal ties to the area gives him some support, placing him second. With 31,029 registered voters, about 11,657 voters are expected to participate.

Dist #9: Edith 1st - Tingban 2nd - Kogar 3rd

District 9, covering Gbi & Doru, Doe, and Yarwein-Mehnsonoh districts, is about 80% Mano, 5% Gbi & Doru, and 15% Gio. Edith’s strong lead reflects the Mano dominance. Tingban, Edith's hometown brother, is expected to come second, while Kogar trails third despite Gio presence. With 26,707 registered voters, approximately 10,033 voters are projected to turn out1.

A Test for Nimba—and Liberia

The outcome of the April 22 by-election will be a critical indicator of whether Nimba County—and by extension, Liberia—can transcend the politics of tribe and move toward more inclusive, merit-based governance. The historical record shows that tribalism has long shaped the county’s elections, but the shifting rhetoric and the results of this contest may signal a new trajectory. As Nimba’s voters head to the polls, they do so not just to choose a senator, but to decide whether the county’s future will be defined by old patterns of ethnic loyalty or by a new, more democratic vision for postwar Liberia.

Credit @ Cyrus Dahnquoin

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Additional Sources

Koung Turns Up the Heat: Tribal Politics Take Center Stage in Nimba’s High-Stakes By-Election

The Shifting Rhetoric of “Tribal Balance”

Tribal Loyalties, District Realities, and the Battle for Political Influence

A Test for Nimba—and Liberia

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